Earlier than Monday’s (Jan 10) buying and selling actually kicks into motion, Tilray (TLRY) will launch its November (F2Q22) quarter outcomes.
Forward of the print, Cantor’s Pablo Zuanic believes the developments aren’t tilting within the Canadian LP’s favor. “Except the corporate points bullish ahead commentary, we anticipate the inventory to face strain from the November quarter print,” the analyst forewarned.
Whereas Zuanic notes that hashish makes up lower than half of the corporate’s gross sales (within the August quarter they accounted for 42% of complete revs), he’s much less centered on the metrics of the non-cannabis components – akin to CC Pharma, craft beer, hemp meals – preferring to gauge the corporate’s well being via the prism of the hashish enterprise.
And based on Hifyre, the top-line motion has not been all that nice. Within the November quarter, leisure gross sales noticed a sequential drop of 16%, regardless of the market total rising by 5%.
The developments for December aren’t very promising, both, with Hifyre knowledge displaying gross sales dropped by 3% month-over-month because the market noticed progress of 8%.
Whereas Zuanic concedes that in December Tilray nonetheless held the #1 place in rec, it solely claimed a ten.8% share, with the determine amounting to an 8-point year-over-year drop. Nonetheless, Zuanic does notice that TLRY’s share could also be increased as Hifyre “tends to underestimate Quebeq publicity, the place we perceive TLRY is overindexed vs. most friends ex-HEXO.”
As for the opposite indicators, Zuanic expects export developments to stay “secure” though he’s involved that primarily based on “working deleverage and ongoing worth deflation,” hashish gross margins might drop from the August quarter’s 43%.
The place the headline numbers are involved (which Zuanic calls “much less related”), he tasks complete gross sales of $163 million and complete EBITDA of $10 million, in comparison with the Avenue’s forecast of $174 million and $14 million, respectively.
Total, Zuanic believes Tilray’s hashish enterprise is presently valued “nicely above the peer group common,” and as such, the analyst charges TLRY as a Impartial (i.e., Maintain), whereas the value goal will get a trim from $11.80 to $7.40. However, there’s nonetheless upside of 15% from present ranges. (To look at Zuanic’s monitor file, click here)
Ranking clever, Zuanic’ colleagues agree. Barring 1 Purchase and Promote, every, all 5 others say Maintain, culminating in a Maintain consensus score. Nonetheless, the common goal stays a bullish one; at $10.52, traders might see returns of 64% over the one-year timeframe. (See Tilray stock forecast on TipRanks)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed on this article are solely these of the featured analysts. The content material is meant for use for informational functions solely. It is vitally essential to do your personal evaluation earlier than making any funding.