Merchants work on the buying and selling flooring on the New York Inventory Trade (NYSE) in New York, December 17, 2021.
Andrew Kelly | Reuters
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Wall Road buyers imagine inflation will stay a serious roadblock for the markets in 2022 and shares will solely see muted returns, in keeping with the brand new CNBC Delivering Alpha investor survey.
We polled about 400 chief funding officers, fairness strategists, portfolio managers and CNBC contributors who handle cash about the place they stood on the markets for the remainder of 2021 and subsequent yr. The survey was carried out this week.
Greater than half of the respondents mentioned inflation worries them probably the most about 2022. Thirty p.c mentioned the Federal Reserve elevating charges on the mistaken time is a high concern for them subsequent yr, whereas 17% mentioned the pandemic and its financial impression is the largest fear.
For months, buyers have watched quite a lot of inflation information factors present their highest ranges in many years. The consumer price index, which measures the price of a wide-ranging basket of products and companies, surged 6.8% on a year-over-year foundation in November, hitting the quickest fee since June 1982.
The Fed signaled it’s going to make aggressive coverage strikes in response to rising inflation, together with accelerating the discount of its month-to-month bond purchases. Fed officers additionally see as many as three fee hikes coming in 2022.
“There are critical headwinds to fret about,” Brad McMillan, chief funding officer at Commonwealth Monetary Community, mentioned in a word. “Inflation is on the highest stage in many years. Provide chain issues appear to be insoluble. If these points preserve getting worse, they might derail the restoration.”
The S&P 500 has rallied over 27% this yr to a report excessive because the market climbed a wall of fear from surging inflation to the continued pandemic to the rollback of financial stimulus. For 2022, buyers suppose positive factors can be a lot decrease.
Greater than 50% of the survey respondents anticipate the S&P 500 to go up lower than 10% in 2022. Practically 18% suppose the market will produce one other double-digit yr, whereas 10% of the members suppose shares can be flat subsequent yr.
Amongst totally different asset courses, equities are nonetheless buyers’ best choice for 2022, in keeping with the survey end result.
“Whereas inflation is a priority and supply of volatility, it additionally makes shares probably the most compelling selection among the many main asset courses,” Tony DeSpirito, chief funding officer of U.S. elementary lively fairness at BlackRock, mentioned in a word. “Particular person corporations will handle via in a different way, highlighting the significance of a stock-by-stock strategy.”
By way of inventory preferences, 35% of the respondents mentioned they favor financials and 27% like cyclical names benefiting from the financial restoration. Know-how shares basically turned much less favorable amongst buyers in 2022, although they nonetheless managed sizeable positive factors.